16 01 2013

Analysis of macroeconomic trends in 2013

Year 2013 promises to be "quiet." There will be neither Olympic competition nor electoral excitement in key countries around the world. All left in 2012, a leap year. XXVII World Universiade in Kazan event, of course, the status, but everything is not particularly affected. Hence, comes the most appropriate time for the orderly and predictable development of the business.

However, the still waters are known to be deep. And calm the political economy can suddenly turn into a storm from which happily will only petrels. So what to expect and what to prepare in the coming 2013? What trends will determine the economic activity in the world? IRCIS (International Rating and Customer Informing Service) company IBFS presented on this occasion the following predictions:

In Cyprus, all is calm

There is no "division of the world" or the "end of the world" in the field of well-known international instruments to optimize financial flows of large and medium-sized companies is expected. Low-tax jurisdiction will remain in place and will continue to provide "services safe harbor" for international capital.

Despite the negative outlook by Moody's and Standard & Poors regarding the economic situation in Cyprus, it remains the center of the capital turnover. All the talk about possible changes to the usual procedures and interest rates - are conversations in favor of the EU, so to speak, diligent imitation of pan-European integration process and nothing more. Centered - geographically - the position of Cyprus will this year even more evident by increasing the proportion of the "Eastern Conference" low tax League.

Hong Kong and Singapore, to some extent will become even more attractive for the creation of Asian outposts of large and medium sized companies focused on working with China and South Korea (which we will write later).

But the Caribbean offshore necklace will fade a bit. In 2013, IRCIS experts expect a significant drop in popularity of the British Virgin Islands (BVI). It seems that Washington has decided, if not to pinch the pockets of American fat cats, or at least pull their nerves and for that coveted “reoffshore" one of the most popular offshore. Hardly anyone in the BVI government in mind and clear memory without the White House would have thought to start collecting fiscal data: residential address business owners, a detailed summary of the beneficiaries, the shareholders and directors of offshore companies and so on. About any "issue" of collected information to the authorities of key economic powers of speech does not go, but all are well aware that all the data "fix" anywhere, immediately pop up in another, and the most unexpected place.

In the past year many people were interested in Latvian "big statement." Say, if St. Petersburg - this Venice of the North, the Riga - Baltic is Nicosia, rather Latvia - this Eastern European Cyprus. Said boldly. But believe Latvian riflemen word clearly not worth it, unless Parliament is not quickly reshape Custom Made Roman-Germanic patterns country's legislation. And "big European brothers" will not allow that to Latvia. Cyprus a united Europe is more than enough. However, omnivorous, modest demands and obliging banks in Latvia in 2013 will continue to increase their customer base through the CIS and former soccamp.

Indochina half of the world in 2013

East Europeans attracted thousands with its miracles. The New Year will be no different in terms of miracles. However, they are unlikely to be as enticing as the end of last and the beginning of this millennium. Perhaps many are even upset.

These disorders are associated with the outlined vector of development of China's economy, pointing to its gradual encapsulation - refocusing on domestic consumption. And this is not due to the great ideas of the new leadership of the Communist Party of China. This trend - is Tao Celestial Empire in the first half of the twenty-first century. Billion workers worldwide consumer goods factories sick of eating rice with cheap soy sauce. They want to eat not less diverse than employees in the European design offices and laboratories, to create a prototype for future replication in China. To buy delicacies, it is not enough to be on the shelves of Chinese stores (and they are there), one also has to have the population had adequate amounts of cash. And if the "masses" want, true Confucians - Chinese Communists - cannot listen to the voice of the people. As a result, the average wage in China in 2013 will grow by 15-20%. This is a net gain, because inflation in China is not and will not. Therefore, it is expected that sales prices in China on Chinese-made goods will rise by 25-30%. But whether or not consumers are willing to buy the same consumer goods, but at a higher price? They, of course, there is no choice, but a restructuring of the consumer in the New Year is still expected.

In particular, we should expect "frost on the ground of" purchasing and shuttle business. No, people with checked bags and continue to scurry through the Sino-Russian border. We are talking about a regular business focused on speculation Chinese goods. Here the initiative and profits will be more and more to leave in the hands of the Chinese. What can be done to make this process has not led to fatal consequences? Experts recommend IRCIS visionary entrepreneurs think in one of two directions. First, boycott Chinese products. China has made giant strides in the development of production of components and parts made of advanced technology imported from the U.S., Japan and South Korea. The assembly of these components - it is not so hot processes of: thrust and/or screwed. The cost of labor in China and in the Russian outback soon catch up, and import duties on parts will always be lower charges for transportation of finished products. With the right approach and proper invention share can get "home" high-tech device or mechanism with all the proposed profit. The second trend: the development of real cooperation. The Chinese and Russian economies - complicated and not transparent structures. To fish in the troubled waters of an unfamiliar is difficult, and dangerous. So maneuvering in Chinese realities is better left to the Chinese comrades, taking care of the Russian or European business. The rate of return to the distribution, of course, will fall, but it significantly reduced the cost of irrelevant local flavor. Found in China billionth worthy partner - a difficult task, but doable, especially with the involvement of competent professionals, for example, the expert of China experts IBFS.

In any case, in 2013, it is highly recommended that you back funds in RMB, the benefit they will soon be actively circulating in the Russian economy.

However, where there are two ways that will certainly find the third. And it is around China. Where is it?

Japan and South Korea - is too "wonderful" to be true. Unfortunately, Japanese, and South Korean economic miracles - it is rather a topic for academic dissertations than for business planning.

India consistently absorbed and digested the scores of conquerors and cultures, trying to become the Silicon Valley of Indochina. However, belong to the Indians' copyrights for the invention of modern mathematics ", do not guarantee their outstanding analytical and programming ability. Anyone who has tried to order the development of software in India knows that work there are slow and costly. Otherwise, Indian goods - niche and perhaps in the near future will come out of this category, if only in the western world is not going to happen a new boom Downshifting, also known as ekzotohipizm. But this is unlikely.

Thailand, Laos, Cambodia - this is not a business. This is extreme. It is highly recommended for those who lack excitement in life.

However, there is a country in Indochina, where experts IRCIS recommend to pay attention to. And this country is Vietnam. It is the most likely candidate for the new Asian wonders. Europeans, Americans and even the Chinese for several years working on the transfer of its production in China is Vietnam, whose socialism was not as bizarre as in Maoist China, and therefore did not lead to the emergence of national psychology "yard blast furnaces" - will produce all quickly and with obvious damage to quality. If we compare the quality of tailoring the same shoes in China and Vietnam, the choice will always be in favor of the latter. So think in this direction is worth. And this should be done just in 2013.

Brains - is everything

One of the most striking trends in the development of tax optimization in 2013 will be the appearance in the structures of international holding companies, owners of intellectual property created in the corresponding low-tax jurisdictions. Neither international nor national regulatory authorities for a long time cannot create an adequate system of evaluation of intellectual value and its share price in the final product or service. Payments to copyright holders for the use of patents, licenses and so on, depend entirely on the agreement with him.

In this respect, in view visionary entrepreneurs as an alternative to Cyprus odious get more prestigious Ireland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. Licensed companies established there, will enjoy high demand, and their use as tools for optimization of taxation would be possible in a long period of time, which, in light of the mentality Kremlin dreamers cannot be said of similar firms in the so-called classic offshore.

Now the bad news

As they say "help tired." Even the United States - world advocates of private enterprise - all the intrusive interest of the private affairs of most entrepreneurs. For this barbarism coined a beautiful word - transparency. Sounds nice, but really it all more and more like a life sentence in the film set shameless reality show. And if before the hidden cameras were only here and there, but now they are everywhere.

In 2013, according to IBFS experts transparency becomes even greater. The banks will be interested not only intrusive purpose of payment, but also the identity of those who actually gave instructions to commit themselves. In the order of the tax authorities of different countries will come much more information than before, and fiscal between related organizations will be strengthened "informal communication".

All this will make such human quality as prudence is highly desirable, if not vital for maintaining a business. Those who neglected them, we soon learned the news about loud related processes, such as transfer pricing, which in 2013 will be the "word of the year."

Can someone pursue in such circumstances systematic development of business? Some people can. If you learn one more important word - outsourcing. IRCIS experts strongly recommend delegate prudence and competent professionals who will address issues related to increasing transparency, not as they are received, and in good time. Otherwise, even the most well-dressed king risks being naked.

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